Cameroon and Chad: when climate change puts millions of lives at risk

Climate change: a crisis multiplier

Cameroon’s Far North region accounts for a large proportion of the country’s humanitarian needs. In 2026, nearly 1.3 million people are in need of assistance, against a backdrop of population displacement, persistent insecurity in the Lake Chad basin and growing pressure on natural resources.

Chad is also facing a worrying security situation in the Lake Province. The country is hosting more than 1.4 million Sudanese refugees and associated populations, nearly 401,000 Chadian returnees in the east, and several hundred thousand internally displaced persons nationwide, placing increased pressure on agricultural land, pastures, water resources and markets.

Added to these difficulties is an aggravating factor: climate change, which acts as a ‘crisis multiplier’ and further weakens communities that are already vulnerable.

In the Far North region of Cameroon, over the course of the year, communities reported an increase in droughts, more frequent heatwaves and significant disruptions to the rainfall pattern. In Chad, several regions recorded very significant rainfall deficits in 2026, jeopardising the replenishment of water sources, crop growth and the regeneration of pastures. The World Food Programme (WFP) has described these droughts as the most severe ever recorded in the region since 1984.

“In the Far North of Cameroon, the start of the rainy season was delayed by nearly two months in several departments, with pockets of prolonged drought and a worrying drop in the water level of the Logone River,” says Salissou Sabo Mainassara, food security and livelihoods officer for Action Against Hunger in Central Africa. “These disruptions have led to delays in sowing and the need for re-sowing, particularly in Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Danay, Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga, with a risk of negatively impacting cereal production, particularly maize and millet.”

“In Chad, rainfall deficits ranging from –129 mm to –422 mm were observed throughout the year in many agro-pastoral areas of the Lac province.” The most affected regions are mainly concentrated in the Sahelian belt and the eastern parts of the country. The provinces of Lac, Kanem, Bahr El Gazal, Batha, Wadi Fira, Ouaddaï, Sila and Hadjer Lamis have the most worrying rainfall deficits, as well as a significant deterioration in agro-ecological conditions.

Agriculture and livestock farming on the front line

Farmers, herders and fishermen are bearing the brunt of the effects of climate change. In both countries, the majority of households depend directly on agriculture for food and to meet their basic needs.

In Cameroon, the delayed rains have forced many farmers to resow their plots after several weeks without rainfall. Farmers now fear insufficient harvests, particularly for staple crops such as maize and cowpeas. In Chad, the consequences are similar: delays in sowing and poor crop growth could significantly reduce agricultural yields. The province of Sila, in the east of the country, is a case of advanced warning, with sorghum fields considered beyond recovery despite the possibility of renewed rainfall: “More than 32,000 hectares of crops are believed to have been destroyed as a result of rainfall deficits and prolonged dry spells,” says Salissou with concern.

 “For rural families, a poor harvest means not only less food available, but also less income to buy essential goods or cover household expenses. It also means less investment for the next farming season. It is a vicious circle from which families struggle to escape.”

In the fishing sector, falling water levels and the drying up of water bodies are leading to a widespread decline in catches, reducing both fishermen’s incomes and families’ access to animal protein.

Climate change is also disrupting pastoral activities, which are essential in this part of the Sahel. The deterioration of pastures and the lack of water are limiting the feed available to herds. Animals are losing weight, producing less milk and becoming more vulnerable to disease.

“For herders, livestock often represents much more than a source of food: it constitutes savings, an asset and a means of coping with unforeseen events. When households are forced to sell their animals to survive, they lose part of their ability to recover after the crisis,” comments Salissou.

This scarcity of resources encourages early and unusual movements by herders in search of resources, increasing the risk of tensions between farmers and herders over access to water and land.

“Households are at risk of facing a particularly adverse squeeze: on the one hand, falling production is limiting income from agriculture, pastoralism and fisheries; on the other hand, the continued rise in food prices is increasing the cost of accessing food. This dual pressure is significantly reducing their purchasing power and their ability to meet their basic needs,” warns Salissou

A threat to food security

The effects of climate change are having a negative impact on the entire food system. As harvests decline and herds dwindle, the food supply shrinks. This scarcity directly affects food prices, causing them to rise, whilst household incomes fall.

“In Chad, the price of imported rice is 33 per cent higher than the average and as much as 60 per cent higher in some areas, such as Pala, in the west of the country,” explains Salissou.

Faced with these difficulties, many families are adopting survival strategies: cutting back on the number of daily meals, selling livestock, taking on debt or migrating in search of new economic opportunities.

“In Cameroon, people from the communities where we are working tell us that their food reserves are significantly lower than in previous years and that their stocks are already low or completely depleted.”

In Chad, 21 departments are currently classified as Phase 3 (Crisis). By the next lean season, 37 departments could slip into this phase. In total, more than three million people could face acute food insecurity during this critical period. “The expected deterioration in food security raises fears of an increase in cases of acute malnutrition, particularly among children under five, pregnant and breastfeeding women, and the poorest households,” says Salissou.

In Cameroon, indicators also show a worrying deterioration in living conditions in the Far North. “The latest estimates indicate that the departments of Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga remain in a Crisis situation (IPC Phase 3) and that some very poor households could slip into an Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In the first half of 2026, more than 200,000 children were screened for malnutrition.”

The El Niño phenomenon is exacerbating vulnerabilities

The 2026–2027 El Niño episode, which is now very intense, is expected to exacerbate the consequences of climate change, increasing rainfall variability, extreme weather events, market volatility and the deterioration of agro-pastoral systems.

“We are particularly concerned, especially given that the 2027 lean season is expected to arrive earlier, last longer and be more severe,” warns Salissou.

For the Sahel and West Africa, such a phenomenon could lead to major climatic disruptions, characterised by high rainfall variability, an increase in extreme weather events and a further deterioration in agro-pastoral conditions. For Salissou, “this phenomenon risks amplifying existing vulnerabilities”.

“Past experience shows that the most severe consequences for food and nutritional security do not usually manifest themselves immediately after climatic shocks, but with a lag of several months”.

Thus, the shortfalls in agricultural production, difficulties in accessing pasture and water, and market disruptions observed in 2026 could result, during 2027, in a rise in admissions for acute malnutrition, a decline in the purchasing power of the most vulnerable households, and an increase in the need for humanitarian assistance.

Raising funds to prepare for shocks

Despite the worrying outlook, it is still possible to take action to limit the consequences of climate shocks. Action Against Hunger calls on donors, national authorities, local authorities and humanitarian partners to turn these warning signs into concrete action before the peak of the 2027 lean season.

“There is an urgent need to mobilise pre-emptive funding now to support those most vulnerable to climate challenges and the El Niño phenomenon. This flexible and supplementary funding will enable us to strengthen food assistance in priority areas and rapidly adapt the humanitarian response as the situation evolves.”

The challenge is to enable communities to adapt better to a climate that will continue to deteriorate in the coming years. The next six months are a crucial period for protecting livelihoods, preventing malnutrition and strengthening the resilience of the most vulnerable communities.