Madagascar: El Niño to worsen the food crisis in the Greater South

Six districts facing emergency levels of food insecurity

In southern Madagascar, communities are facing the consequences of a severe and prolonged drought, compounded by the near-total collapse of the 2025-2026 agricultural season. This situation has led to an early and extended lean season, during which household food reserves are being depleted ahead of the next harvests.

The latest analyses from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) indicate a high risk of rapid deterioration from October 2026, with emergency levels corresponding to IPC Phase 4 projected in six districts of the Greater South.

“We expect to face the worst crisis since the ‘kéré’ period of 2021. The figures and projections are extremely alarming: more than 500,000 children under the age of five are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition by April 2027,” said Grégoire Brou, Action Against Hunger’s Country Director in Madagascar. “At a time when international solidarity funding is declining across the board, we are particularly concerned about the growing humanitarian needs in the country and our capacity to respond to them.”

El Niño could further increase pressure on vulnerable communities

This already fragile situation is compounded by unfavourable climate forecasts. Projections associated with the El Niño phenomenon point to significant rainfall deficits, which could once again affect harvests, livelihoods, and access to safe drinking water.

According to climate forecasts, El Niño is expected to intensify over the coming months, with effects that could persist until 2028. In southern Madagascar, this could lead to several consecutive below-average agricultural seasons, further weaken household livelihoods, and prolong the food and nutrition crisis well beyond the next lean season.

“The lean season at the end of 2027 could begin earlier and be more severe, with a risk of IPC Phase 5 pockets, corresponding to an extremely critical level of malnutrition.”

“We are facing families whose ability to absorb additional shocks is now extremely limited. Acting before the situation deteriorates further will not only save lives but also help prevent already highly vulnerable households from losing their last remaining means of livelihood,” explained Grégoire Brou.

In response to these forecasts, Action Against Hunger has already activated several anticipatory financing mechanisms, notably with the support of ECHO, IFSAN, and Start Ready. These interventions will reach nearly 20,000 people among the most vulnerable households, particularly pregnant and breastfeeding women and children under five years of age. The activities are designed to strengthen households’ ability to cope with the upcoming lean season through early support that will enable them to build up food reserves and reduce their exposure to the anticipated shocks.

Action Against Hunger calls for increased funding

Given the risk of a worsening situation, Action Against Hunger is calling on donors and partners to unlock anticipatory, flexible funding commensurate with the scale of needs.

“There is still time to act. Funding must be mobilized now to implement anticipatory actions and reduce the impact of the shocks that have been forecast. As we stand on the brink of this new crisis, it is essential to maintain critical nutrition interventions in order to protect vulnerable populations and preserve their livelihoods as much as possible.”

Today, according to the Humanitarian Response Plan, only 72% of identified needs are funded. As southern Madagascar continues to face a major and underfunded humanitarian crisis, rapid mobilization can still help prevent a further deterioration of the situation and mitigate its consequences for the most vulnerable populations.