Mitigating the impact of climate induced displacement through drought prediction in Iraq

Iraq is one of the most affected country affected by Climate Change. Southern Iraq faces the challenge more severely.

The fertile marshlands of southern Iraq, once considered as food basket of Iraq and accounted for just under half of the inland waters reservoirs, have diminished in the last two decades. Lower precipitation and building of dams on Tigris River has reduced the flow of fresh water in to the region.

Action Against Hunger commissioned a study in the region to understand the situation in depth and also generate evidence for key decision makers including government, donors and humanitarian workers.

The qualitative study of climate-related displacement in al-Basra, Maysan and Thi Qar province was funded through Action contre la Faim internal funds. The report shows the existing situation, major areas of impacts and future projection of the situation.

Equitable and sustainable access to water is vital for Iraq’s reconstruction and lasting peace. Iraq’s primary rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates, as well as surface water sources are overstretched due to increasing demand resulting from underperforming water management systems, poor agricultural and irrigation practices, and decreasing recharge due to climate change.

Drought had spread throughout all Iraqi governorate during the last couple of years due to mal use of water for irrigation in addition to low level of incoming water that feeds both rivers of Tigris & Euphrates. Action Against Hunger, in collaboration with the University of Mosul, has developed a drought prediction tool.

The tool analysis data from open source platforms, partners and the government, to predict water scarcity as well as its expected impact. The prediction tools aggregate data from the 7 input variables including inflow and outflow of surface water and weather factor data such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours and precipitation.

This is the summary of the first analysis, the tool is currently under review and will be further refined based on the peer review.